I wanted to update a post from last week in which I was curious about the speculation that wild, wonderful West Virginia would turn purple in this election and throw its support towards Senator Barack Obama in the presidential race. Nate Silver has crunched some more numbers at FiveThirtyEight.com and concludes that we can scratch the Mountain State off the swing state list. According to Nate:
Both Public Policy Polling and Mason-Dixon have new polling out in the state, and they give John McCain leads of 8 and 6 points respectively. It's possible that this is one of those areas where McCain's attacks on Barack Obama are having some resonance. It's also possible that the state was never all that close to begin with, and that the ARG poll from two weeks ago that gave Obama a substantial lead was one of those infamous ARG outliers. By no means is the state totally unwinnable for Obama -- and I'd still like to see what, say, Research 2000 or Rasmussen or SurveyUSA have to say about it -- but in all probability, it is pretty far from the tipping point.
I thought it was a little too good to be true, too. And though I dearly love both the state and its people, if they bought into the whole “Al-Gore-will-take-your-guns-away” horsepuckey they’ve probably swallowed John McCain’s bullshit as well.
Of course, these sorts of situations don’t help a great deal, either.